Mongolia, long overshadowed by its two powerful neighbors, Russia and China, is emerging as an unlikely but important player in the shifting geopolitics of Eurasia.
While Moscow and Beijing expand their influence through energy pipelines, railway links, and trilateral summits, India is steadily carving out its own place in Ulaanbaatar’s future.
Rooted in history, culture, and shared democratic values, the India–Mongolia partnership has moved far beyond symbolism. From strategic defense exercises and joint peacekeeping training to energy projects and trade discussions, the relationship is evolving into something that could alter the balance of power in Eurasia.
Trilateral Ties With China & Russia
Recently, China, Russia, and Mongolia convened in Beijing for a trilateral meeting intended to strengthen their collaborative efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of deepening political, economic, and humanitarian ties among the three nations.
“Our three countries have much in common,” he affirmed, stressing the desire for mutually beneficial relations.
In contrast, President Xi Jinping of China emphasized the critical role of the China–Mongolia–Russia economic corridor, portraying it as pivotal for regional cooperation in trade, infrastructure, and culture.
The summit underscored the determination of China and Russia to keep Mongolia closely tied to their regional ambitions, intertwining Ulaanbaatar’s future with their strategic plans.
Mongolia At The Crossroads
Geographically situated between Russia and China, Mongolia plays a unique role in the geopolitics of Eurasia. It is the world’s second-largest landlocked country, characterized by vast steppes and deserts, yet sparsely populated.
This geographical position has turned Mongolia into both a buffer state and a bridge, where great powers meet. Historically, empires have clashed here, while trade routes like the Silk Road have flourished, marking Mongolia as a focal point in contemporary geopolitical rivalries.
Mongolia & China: Uneasy Neighbors
Despite the collaborative rhetoric between Mongolia and China, their relationship is fraught with complexities. Cultural identity and historical grievances are sensitive subjects that simmer beneath the surface.
The situation in Inner Mongolia, an autonomous region within China, complicates these relations. Ethnic ties often cause tensions, the most recent notable flare-up occurring in 2015 due to clashes involving ethnic Mongolians.
These disputes raise concerns over language, cultural identity, and the threat of assimilation, highlighting the delicate balance Mongolia must maintain while navigating its relationship with China.
Power Of Siberia 2: Energy Flows Through Mongolia
Energy infrastructure is pivotal to Mongolia’s integration into the Russian-Chinese axis. The newly forged Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal is a transformative project that will transport substantial quantities of Russian natural gas into China through Mongolian territory.
Once operational, this pipeline is expected to deliver up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually for 30 years, solidifying China’s energy security while enhancing Russia’s market stability.
However, the agreement leaves several critical questions unanswered, particularly regarding construction responsibilities and pricing—issues that could impact Mongolia adversely if not handled carefully.
Rail Links Tighten The Ties
In addition to energy pipelines, infrastructure projects are increasingly linking Mongolia to China and Russia. A recent agreement to jointly construct a new cross-border railway between Mongolia and China showcases this trend.
This vital railway will enhance cargo transport between the two nations, significantly benefiting Mongolia’s export economy, which heavily relies on its natural resources.
The construction of the Ganqmod–Gashuun Sukhait line is a major step in solidifying economic ties, as it becomes the second significant rail crossing between the two countries in almost 70 years.
India Steps In: A Different Kind Of Partnership
Amid these developments, India has been quietly fortifying its ties with Mongolia, emphasizing a partnership rooted in shared democratic values rather than immediate economic gain.
The historical links between the two nations go back nearly two millennia, with India establishing diplomatic relations with Mongolia as early as 1955. This foundation has allowed deeper cooperation to flourish, particularly after Prime Minister Modi’s visit in 2015.
This relationship has evolved into a strategic partnership encompassing defense, energy, and cultural exchange, offering Mongolia an alternative to the heavy economic dependence on its neighbors.
Standing Together On The Global Stage
India and Mongolia’s relationship extends beyond bilateral cooperation; it carries weight on the international stage. Mongolia has consistently backed India’s push for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, reflecting their shared interests as smaller democracies.
India’s advocacy for Mongolia’s inclusion in global platforms has solidified the partnership, enhancing Mongolia’s visibility in the international arena.
Building Economic Foundations
On an economic level, the partnership may be modest, yet it is significant. The $1 billion oil refinery project in Mongolia, built with Indian assistance, is a landmark development set to increase energy independence and reduce reliance on neighboring nations.
The discussions around coal exports to India highlight a promising avenue for diversifying Mongolia’s trade, particularly as disruptions in Australia’s coal supply offer new opportunities for collaboration.
Defense: Trust On The Battlefield
Defense cooperation has become a cornerstone of India-Mongolia relations, with joint exercises like ‘Nomadic Elephant’ reinforcing military ties through collaborative training programs focused on peacekeeping.
These joint exercises prepare both nations for real-world challenges and facilitate cultural exchange among military personnel, strengthening their operational trust.
Additionally, dialogues on border management further underline the mutual commitment to security cooperation in facing common challenges.
Mongolia’s Balancing Act
Mongolia stands at a critical juncture, caught between the economic benefits of deeper ties with Russia and China and the risks of overdependence. Meanwhile, India offers a partnership built on trust and long-term strategic goals.
As the region evolves, Ulaanbaatar will need to find ways to strengthen its economy while safeguarding its independence, allowing it to navigate the intricate geopolitical landscape effectively.