The Strengthening Ties Between China and Cuba: A Deepening Relationship Amid Challenges
Since the early days of engagement, China’s ties with Cuba have only strengthened, reflecting a shared interest in political, economic, and military collaboration. The alliance has been bolstered through high-level meetings among military officials and state leaders, indicating a commitment to mutual support in various domains. Following his inauguration in 2013, Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s first visit to Latin America included stops in Cuba, and in the years since, Cuban leaders have reciprocated with multiple visits to China, culminating in a recent April 2024 meeting between He Weidong, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, and Cuban general Víctor Rojos Ramos. They affirmed their “unbreakable friendship,” signaling a robust defense partnership.
Economic Support and Infrastructure Development
China’s financial support for Cuba has seen continuous growth despite the island’s complex investment climate. Since 2000, China has provided approximately $7.8 billion in development financing to Cuba, with initiatives spanning various sectors. Notably, the modernization of the Port of Santiago de Cuba—a $120 million project initiated after Xi’s visit—highlights China’s commitment to enhancing Cuba’s infrastructure. Additionally, the China National Petroleum Corporation has partnered with Cuba’s state-owned oil company to develop oil reserves, crucial for an economy heavily affected by the collapse of cheap Venezuelan oil. As part of its sustainable energy goals, China is also pledging to construct 92 solar farms across the island, aiming to diversify Cuba’s energy sources and mitigate its dependency on fossil fuels.
Technological Engagement and Surveillance Capabilities
In the technology sector, Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE have cemented their roles in Cuba’s telecommunications infrastructure. These firms have grown increasingly important in a landscape marked by U.S. sanctions and geopolitical tensions. As governments expand their surveillance capabilities worldwide, Cuba has benefitted from technical exchanges with Chinese firms and state-backed universities, aiding its efforts to maintain social control and repress dissent. Historical evidence shows that during the July 2021 protests, Chinese technology enabled the Cuban government to disrupt communications, showcasing the role of external support in internal repression.
Cuba’s Economic Crisis: Context and Implications
Cuba is grappling with its worst economic crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union, a situation exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on tourism—one of the island’s primary revenue sources. Policy shifts and restrictions imposed during the Trump administration significantly curtailed remittances from Cubans abroad. Despite attempts by the Biden administration to reinstate some travel freedoms, the Cuban government’s repressive measures against protests hinder any path toward recovery. As inflation rises and living conditions deteriorate, over a million Cubans—about 10% of the population—have fled the island since 2021, seeking better opportunities elsewhere.
This dire economic situation creates an opportunity for China to increase its influence in Cuba. With limited options for external assistance, Cuba’s leadership could find Beijing’s financial backing and political support increasingly appealing as a counterbalance to its isolation.
Strategic Military Interests and Intelligence Sharing
China’s growing economic and political leverage in Cuba may facilitate an expansion of its military and intelligence services on the island. Situated just a short distance from U.S. shores, Cuba occupies a strategically advantageous position in the Caribbean, making it an attractive target for Chinese military ambitions. Intelligence cooperation between Cuba and China, particularly through signals intelligence (SIGINT), could develop rapidly, allowing both nations to share valuable information without necessitating a significant presence of Chinese military personnel.
Cuba’s sophisticated human intelligence (HUMINT) capabilities, particularly targeting the United States, further enhance the potential for collaborative intelligence operations. High-profile arrests of individuals like Manuel Rocha, a former U.S. ambassador allegedly turned Cuban spy, underscore Cuba’s historical expertise in cultivating HUMINT and revealing the deep-rooted intelligence networks in operation.
Implications for U.S. Policy and Response
With extra-hemispheric powers like China and Russia increasingly probing for influence in the Americas, Cuba risks becoming a critical front in the competition for regional dominance. The memory of the Cuban Missile Crisis remains a potent reminder of the dangers associated with U.S. adversaries establishing military facilities close to American territory. Although immediate threats may be limited, the expansion of China’s intelligence presence in Cuba poses long-term concerns for U.S. security interests and regional stability.
Policy Recommendations to Counteract Intensifying Risks
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Enhance Transparency and Communication: To avert dangerous misperceptions akin to the Cuban Missile Crisis, the U.S. should pursue clear channels of communication regarding military capabilities on the island. Conscious outreach and disclosure efforts could deter adversaries from escalating tensions in the region.
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Strengthen Cyber Defenses: It is crucial for the U.S. to support civilian infrastructure to withstand potential SIGINT interception. By reinforcing cybersecurity protocols, particularly for businesses operating within tech and telecommunications sectors, the U.S. can protect sensitive information from adversarial incursions.
- Counter Digital Authoritarianism: U.S. policy should actively push back against the digital repression enabled by Chinese support to the Cuban government. Initiatives that facilitate internet access and secure communication channels for Cuban civil society will empower citizens, undermining governmental control.
Conclusion
The evolving relationship between China and Cuba represents a significant geopolitical development with ramifications extending far beyond the island itself. As Cuba navigates its economic crisis and seeks external support, its alignment with Beijing poses challenges for the U.S. and its allies in the region. Addressing these emerging threats requires a multifaceted approach to bolster resilience, maintain communication, and promote democratic values. The coming years will be crucial in determining the sustainability of this partnership and its broader implications for regional security dynamics.